Covid-19 World Totals

USA

• Trump used the Fourth of July weekend to sow division during a global pandemic that has killed over 130,000 Americans, shirked his responsibility to contain the coronavirus, and promoted an updated version of his “American carnage” vision for the country. In a pair of remarks – at Mount Rushmore on Friday and from the White House on Saturday – Trump depicted the recent protests against racism and police brutality as an “angry mob” looking to “unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities” by “tear[ing] down our statues” in order to “erase our history” and “end America.” Trump, making no mention of the victims of police violence, warned of a “growing danger” to the values of the nation through a “merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values, and indoctrinate our children.” “Make no mistake,” Trump told several thousand people mostly without masks, “this left-wing cultural revolution is designed to overthrow the American Revolution.” Trump also claimed that media outlets “slander” him and “falsely and consistently label their opponents as racists.” Trump provided no evidence to support any of his claims. (New York Times / Washington Post / Associated Press / NPR / CNN / ABC News / Los Angeles Times / New York Times / Axios / Associated Press)
• Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that the country was still “knee-deep in the first wave” of the pandemic, saying that the more than 50,000 new cases a day recorded several times in the past week were “a serious situation that we have to address immediately.” The nation’s top infectious disease expert noted that Europe managed to drive infections down, but the U.S. “never came down to baseline and now are surging back up.” Over the first five days of July, the United States reported its three largest daily case totals with 14 states recording single-day highs as the death toll from the pandemic passed 130,000. Fauci added: “the current state is really not good.” (New York Times / Washington Post / Wall Street Journal / ABC News)
• The seven-day average for new coronavirus cases in the U.S. hit a record high for the 28th day in a row. 13 states reported new highs in their seven-day case averages. Montana, Delaware, and Alaska saw their biggest percentage changes from their previous records. West Virginia also set a record number of daily cases. South Carolina, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and California all reported record numbers of hospitalizations from the virus. (Washington Post / Texas Tribune)
• 239 scientists from 32 countries warned that airborne transmission is a significant factor in the coronavirus pandemic. In an open letter to the World Health Organization, the group of scientists outlined the evidence that the virus can spread indoors through aerosols that linger in the air and can be infectious in smaller quantities than previously thought. The WHO, however, has maintained that the coronavirus is spread primarily by large respiratory droplets that fall quickly to the floor. (New York Times / Washington Post / CNBC)
• The White House’s new message to Americans is that they need to learn to “live with the virus being a threat.” Trump campaign officials and advisers have suggested that the goal is to convince Americans to accept the escalating death toll and tens of thousands of new cases a day while pushing for schools to reopen and professional sports to return. For nearly six months the administration have offered a series of predictions, from Trump promising that “the problem goes away in April” to predicting “packed churches all over our country” on Easter Sunday to Pence’s claim that “by Memorial Day weekend we will have this coronavirus epidemic behind us” to Jared Kushner’s promise that the country would be “really rocking again” by July, all while highlighting a potential vaccine and an economic recovery. Among the pronouncements that never came to fruition was the White House’s initial message in January that the virus wasn’t a threat at all.[Editor’s note: Let’s not forget Trump’s suggestion that the lungs could be cleaned of coronavirus with disinfectants.] (Washington Post / NBC News)
• Trump falsely claimed that 99% of coronavirus cases are “totally harmless.” Trump made the false claim during his Independence Day speech in South Dakota. The number appears to be based on the estimated death rate, which excludes the thousands people who have spent weeks in the hospital or at home with mild to moderate symptoms that still caused debilitating health problems. The 1% death rate also narrowly focuses on the number of people who die compared to the total number of people who were infected, including those who are asymptomatic and don’t experience any illness, and those with mild cases who experience fleeting symptoms. Meanwhile, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, who isn’t an epidemiologist, backed up Trump’s false claim, saying “the risks are extremely low, and the president’s right with that and the facts and statistics back us up there.” He provided no evidence to support the false claim. (The Guardian / New York Times / NBC News / Politico / Axios)
• Trump Jr. and a Covid-19 positive Kimberly Guilfoyle were spotted maskless last Saturday at a Hamptons party with 100 other guests. (PageSix)

Link credits: WTF Happened Today, Fipilele, and more…

USA

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• The White House coronavirus task force held its first briefing in two months, as Pence took a victory lap, saying “We slowed the spread, we flattened the curve, we saved lives.” While Pence acknowledged that cases have been rising “precipitously” in some states, he argued that Americans are seeing “encouraging news” despite cases surging because all 50 states – he claimed – “are opening up safely and responsibly.” Pence insisted “this moment is different” than two months ago, suggesting “We’re in a much better place” because “the volume of new cases coming in is a reflection of a great success in expanding testing across the country.” Pence also defended Trump’s decision to resume holding campaign rallies, claiming “The freedom of speech, the right to peaceably assemble, is enshrined in the constitution of the United States […] Even in a health crisis, the American people don’t forfeit our constitutional rights.” He added: “And we have an election coming up this fall.” (NPR / CNBC / Politico / Washington Post / New York Times / CNN / The Hill)
• Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that the coronavirus outbreaks largely in the South and West could spread across the U.S. The nation’s top infectious diseases expert pleaded for Americans to practice social distancing and mask wearing, saying “You have an individual responsibility to yourself but you have a societal responsibility.” The Trump administration is also weighing testing groups of people together. “Pool testing” could help officials test more people with fewer resources. (New York Times / Washington Post)
• The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to invalidate the Affordable Care Act as the U.S. has recorded more than 125,000 deaths from COVID-19, with nearly 2.6 million confirmed cases. In an 82-page brief submitted an hour before the midnight deadline, the Trump administration said that “the entire ACA must fall,” arguing that the individual mandate was rendered unconstitutional after Congress ended the financial penalty for not having health insurance in 2017. If the court agrees, more than 23 million Americans would lose health care coverage. (NBC News / New York Times / Washington Post / Wall Street Journal / CNN / NPR / Politico)
• Trump canceled his planned trip to his private golf club in Bedminster, N.J. The White House claimed the cancellation “had nothing to do” with a state order mandating a 14-day quarantine for visitors who have been in states with increasing numbers of coronavirus cases. The weather forecast, however, showed that thundershowers are expected throughout the area this weekend. Hours later Trump tweeted that he canceled the trip to stay in Washington “to make sure LAW & ORDER is enforced.” (CNBC / Politico)
• The European Union will block most travelers from the United States, Russia, and other countries considered too risky because they have not controlled the coronavirus outbreak. The U.S. banned most European Union travelers in March, but has not eased its restrictions, even though European infections and deaths have dropped. The ban goes into effect on July 1. (New York Times)

Link credits: WTF Happened Today, Fipilele, and more…

Sorry for taking so long to write an update. The past few weeks have been consumed with work, projects, and regular life. Stay home, stay safe, and don’t believe that it’s over until we have a vaccine, or a treatment that is effective, ubiquitous, and affordable.

-ddp-

• Trump announces U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization. Alarmed health experts said the move will set back global efforts to fight the pandemic
• The Trump administration’s initial distribution of remdesivir went to – in some cases – the wrong hospitals, to hospitals with no ICUs and therefore no eligible patients, and to facilities without the refrigeration needed to store it. Remdesivir is the only approved coronavirus medication
• Michigan appeals court forces Karl Manke to close up shop and not soon enough, frankly. This while Michigan reports 607 new cases of coronavirus, 34 new deaths, as they plan to reopen. Keep us in your prayers, at over 56,000 cases… Michigan is the 20th most affected place in the world
• Meanwhile, protests spread across the country

Link to race chart

• Mitch McConnell promised House Republicans that enhanced unemployment benefits enacted earlier this spring “will not be in the next bill.”
• The United States could have prevented about 36,000 deaths if social distancing had been put in place seven days earlier — about 40% of fatalities reported to date. If the U.S. imposed social distancing two weeks earlier, about 83% of the nation’s deaths would have been avoided, according to from Columbia University disease modelers.
• Trump warned Americans that “we are not closing our country” again if the U.S. is hit by a second wave of coronavirus infections. “People say that’s a very distinct possibility, it’s standard,” Trump said. “We are going to put out the fires. We’re not going to close the country. We can put out the fires. Whether it is an ember or a flame, we are going to put it out. But we are not closing our country.”
• Trump refused to wear a mask while touring the Ford manufacturing plant in Michigan despite recommendations from federal health officials and an executive order from the state’s governor. Michigan’s attorney general implored Trump to wear a face mask on his tour, citing a “legal responsibility” under state law, as well as a “social and moral responsibility.” Trump claimed “I had one [a mask] on before,” in an area that was not visible to reporters and that it was “not necessary,” but added: “I didn’t want to give the press the pleasure of seeing it.” Yet, we know better… he gins up his base, but wears the mask as no one is looking… he’s a liar, a murderer, and a thief.
• 65% of Americans think it will take at least six months before things return to “normal” as states reopen. 32% of those surveyed think it will take less than six months. 78% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans feel the same.
• More than 100,000 coronavirus cases were reported to the World Health Organization in the last 24 hours – “the most in a single day since the outbreak began.” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus added: “We still have a long way to go in this pandemic.
• All 50 states have now taken steps to reopen. Many began to reopen despite not meeting White House guidelines for progress against the virus, and newly reported cases have been increasing in some states, including Texas and Minnesota, that are moving to ease restrictions. Public health officials, meanwhile, warn that moving too fast could risk more outbreaks.
• Black Americans are dying of coronavirus at a rate three times higher than that of white Americans, according to a new report. More than 20,000 African Americans have already died from the virus.
• The CDC released its reopening guidance that the White House had shelved. The 60-page document provides detailed guidance for schools, businesses, transit systems, and other industries to safely reopen amid the coronavirus pandemic. CDC officials, meanwhile, say their early efforts to coordinate a response to the COVID-19 pandemic were sidelined by a White House driven by politics rather than science. As one current CDC official said: “We’ve been muzzled. [….] if we would have acted earlier on what we knew and recommended, we would have saved lives and money.” If you recall, Trump refused to issue these guidelines earlier, because he’s an asshole.

https://youtu.be/AketCny7xoE

We are no longer posting our “actuals” vs “projected” data. The actual case data is out pacing our prediction math. Until we can rewrite our calculations, this has become an exercise in “truth being stranger (or, more horrifying) than fiction.”

Chart – Where we are with testing:

USA

“Some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice I am willing to make”

– Lord Farquaad

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• What now?
• Trump said his administration will urge the Supreme Court to overturn Obamacare, maintaining its all-out legal assault on the health care law amid a pandemic that will drive millions of more Americans to depend on its coverage
• Scientists identified a new strain of the coronavirus that appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated to the East Coast of the U.S., and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March. The new strain may also make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease
• Yesterday, Mike Pence said the White House is in “preliminary discussions” to wind down the coronavirus task force, because “of the tremendous progress we’ve made as a country”
• Yet today, Trump contradicted his plan to shut down the coronavirus task force, vowing that the group would “continue on indefinitely” because of “how popular the task force is.”
• Jared Kushner’s coronavirus team relied on inexperienced volunteers from consulting and private equity firms with little expertise in the jobs they were assigned
• Trump promised to resume the White House coronavirus briefings, saying “everybody” enjoyed them — including himself. Trump, who ended the daily briefings last week, said “we’ll probably do maybe one a week, sometimes two depending on the news” as he pivots to reopening the economy. Trump added that he enjoys sparring with reporters, but “I was told that some people didn’t like the combative attitude so much.” Trump then congratulated himself, saying: “We set every record with those press conferences. Six million people all the time. You know we had tremendous numbers, literally […] I heard, is this true? It was the highest-rated hour in cable television history. That’s what I heard. I don’t know if that’s true”
• Trump said “it’s possible there will be some” deaths as states roll back restrictions aimed at stopping the spread of the coronavirus, acknowledging that it was the choice the country faces to reopen and “jumpstart” the economy. When asked what he would say to Americans who have lost a loved one to the coronavirus, Trump replied: “I love you”
• Experts warn that Trump’s push to reopen the country risks a “death sentence” for many Americans. Trump has praised governors of states that have started to loosen restrictions on social distancing and business activity, even though he admitted that people will suffer as a result. “Will some people be affected badly? Yes,” Trump said on Tuesday. “But we have to get our country open, and we have to get it open soon.”
• On the same day Trump praised himself for solving “every problem” and taking care of “all of the things,” members of his own administration privately warned that states were still experiencing shortages of masks, gowns, and other medical gear. A May 1 recording of an interagency conference call between FEMA and HHS officials began with the director of the CDC’s influenza division saying: “The numbers of deaths definitely will be high.” Other officials discussed their ongoing struggle to keep up with requests from governors for more medical equipment and PPE. Meanwhile, Trump was telling the public that the federal government had “loaded up hospitals with things to take care of people” and “We’ve ensured a ventilator for every patient who needs one. The testing and the masks and all of the things, we’ve solved every problem. We solved it quickly”
• The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “We don’t know” where the coronavirus began, but “the weight of evidence is that it was natural and not man-made” and “that it was probably not intentional[ly]” released from a Chinese lab. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, however, insisted that “there is significant evidence that this came from the laboratory,” but conceded that “We don’t have certainty […] We’re all trying to figure out the right answer.” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. intelligence community, and the “Five Eyes” international intelligence alliance have all said that the coronavirus “was not manmade or genetically modified,” suggesting that it “evolved in nature,” and likely originated in a Chinese wet market as a result of “natural human and animal interaction”

Today’s projection data:
Total projected cases in the US: 1,263,455
Total projected deaths in the US: 71,920

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,263,183
Total deaths in the US: 74,807

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USA

Case data from today and yesterday are kind of broken, this count isn’t accurate, in fact all the reporting sites have incomplete data for the past couple of days.

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It is probably time I level with all of you about what I think will happen. After 4 months of studying data, reading countless papers, books, and watching this migrate in our global culture, a few things have occurred to me. Those of you who know me, know that I do tend to go fast and deep on these things, I certainly have here.

Even though I post articles to the news section of my own site, I do not often read Coronavirus-related news articles. I never watch the president’s coronavirus briefings, or dwell on what his experts are communicating. I have found that whatever Trump and his “task force” have said, assume the opposite is true. This has proven to be a nearly infallible way of dealing with the president and his “task force.” They are spreading dangerous disinformation and hopefully they will all stand trial for malfeasance, or incompetence, or both. In fact, I’ve all but given up hope that any meaningful leadership will take place in its present, or future form. It will likely come from a place we cannot yet imagine.

I believe, without hesitation, that we are facing another 18-24 months of lock down, social distancing, infection, and death. In the last 250 years, the last 10 influenza pandemics, there has been a second and third wave. Each more deadly than the last. It is not reasonable to expect anything different with Covid-19. Surely, we do not actually know what will happen, this is a coronavirus, not a flu virus. But, does behave very much like a flu it is not unreasonable to make prediction as such. We are making the same mistakes that those before us made and they too felt that restrictions, masks, and social distancing was wrong. The sooner we accept that, the easier this will be to comprehend and make allowances and adjustments for.

There is no vaccine coming soon. Not in July, not in September, at best we may hope to expect a risky, rushed, and certainly not ubiquitously effective vaccine in 18-24 months. We have not developed a safe and effective vaccination from discovery to distribution sooner than 4 years. It’s not unreasonable to believe that one will not happen in a matter of weeks. If we are very lucky, we might see one a few months sooner, from what I’ve gathered August 2021 is a best-case-scenario at this point.

I see that states are reopening. People are tired of being restricted, tired of navigating the world fearfully, tired of uncertainty. I can help put some of that uncertainty to rest. Nearly all, at least 80% of us reading this, will get the virus in the next 18-24 months. Of that, 80% of those will recover leaving 20% to struggle, 10% of those will be fine and recover with minor medical intervention. The remaining 10% will need hospitalization, of those 5% will need intensive care and of those, 1% to 0.5% will die. Pick your population, either 325 million in the US, or 7.7 billion in the world and the formula looks like this: (population) / 2 x .01(and .005 respectively) = total deaths. So, in the US, that is a range of 830,000 to 1,675,000 total deaths. We’ll use 50% here, which is far more conservative

Yes, I said 800,000 to 1.6 million people dead in the US.

It is time, beyond time, for each of us to have a personal plan in which to carry us through this situation. The federal government may be able to assist you, in a minor way, but they will not protect you and they do not have the remotest semblance of a plan. The states are competing with one another for resources and contradicting one another based on party lines, they do not have a plan. The president is encouraging unrest, taking personal advantage for himself, and misleading the world on an hourly basis, he has no plan. Your local government is unlikely to have a plan. So the plan, it’s creation, it’s execution, and it’s modification on-the-fly falls upon each of us, for each of us to own the outcome.

My current plan is to continue to work from home, as I am fortunate to do, to do as much good work in order to distinguish myself as I possibly can, and to keep my family as far away from other people for as long as they will tolerate. I am not willing, unlike our leadership, to sacrifice anyone in my family to get back to Applebee’s for the 2 for $20 and happy hour mixed drinks. The question is, are you? I suspect not.

I want to be perfectly clear on a couple of points:

1). There is nothing we can do, this is inevitable. I’m not advocating tossing the masks and french kissing strangers. I’m saying there is nothing that any of us can do to stop this from happening.

2). There must be a time to return to abnormal life. That will happen soon. Go out, get take out, get groceries, and be aware of people and protect yourself. 50/50 you’ll be fine.

3). Nothing will return to normal. It will seem normal for a moment, but we will be clobbered again near the end of summer beginning of fall. This is far from over. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

4). If the vaccine comes, it will happen as we hit herd immunity and the virus begins to remove itself, it will appear as though the vaccination cured us all. If we get one… Like I said, 18-24 months and 800k – 1.6m dead later.

5). Maybe I’m wrong…. let’s hope that I am. What could be better for me to be dead wrong about this? I can think of no better outcome in the world.

Today’s projection data:
*Total projected cases in the US: 1,200,645
*Total projected deaths in the US: 65,169

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,237,633
Total deaths in the US: 69,921

*Historical data from yesterday is incomplete and the calculations are not accurate for 5/5/20.

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USA

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• Sometimes it seems like the information changes from day to day and from one extreme to another
• The crews from about 100 cruise ships around the world are still on board those ships, trapped, without pay, and they are starting to get sick… 100,000 people
• As states begin to reopen, the CDC is predicting that by June, the US will hit a 3,000 deaths per day rate. Trump is rejecting this and fully denouncing it
• Meanwhile, the The U.S. reported its deadliest day with 2,909 people dying of COVID-19 in 24 hours. The next highest U.S. daily death toll was 2,471 reported on April 23
• The U.S. recorded an estimated 37,100 excess deaths in March and the first two weeks of April – nearly 13,500 more than are now attributed to COVID-19 for that same period. There were 16,600 estimated excess deaths in the week of April 5 to April 11, compared with 20,500 over the prior five weeks
• White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow defended his Feb. 25 claim that the U.S. had “contained” the coronavirus “pretty close to airtight,” arguing that his comments were “based on the actual facts” at the time
• There is no current evidence to suggest that coronavirus leaked from a Chinese research laboratory, intelligence sources have told the Guardian, contradicting recent White House claims that there is growing proof this is how the pandemic began
• Flattening the Truth on Coronavirus – Opinion by Dave Eggers
• Chris Christie thinks that the country should reopen despite the deaths, but it’s a sacrifice he’s willing to make
• French doctors found a Coronavirus patient from December, who had never been to China and had last traveled to Algeria in August 2019

Today’s projection data:
Total projected cases in the US: 1,218,138
Total projected deaths in the US: 68,377

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,212,900
Total deaths in the US: 69,921

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USA

• White House blocks Fauci from testifying at House coronavirus hearing. A White House spokesman said it would be “counter-productive” for the health official to testify, adding that the Trump administration would work with Congress on testimony at a later date. 
• There may be good evidence to suggest that the quadrivalent seasonal flu shot does not raise the risk of contracting Covid-19, or warrant a worsened outcome if one does contract the disease.
• The Ars Technica COVID-19 vaccine primer: 100-plus in the works, 8 in clinical trials. They have at least 102 vaccine candidates in development worldwide. Eight of those have already entered early clinical trials in people. At least two have protected a small number of monkeys from infection with the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes COVID-19.
• At least 30 states have started allowing some businesses to operate or announced plans to do so in May. The reopening of America, however, is happening with little consensus on how it should proceed with state and local officials and, in some cases, business owners drawing their own conclusions about how to balance medical and economic risks.
• The coronavirus pandemic is likely to last at least another 18 months and won’t be controlled until about two-thirds of the world’s population is immune, said a report by a team of longstanding pandemic experts. They recommended that the U.S. prepare for a worst-case scenario, including a second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. In the best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted. (CNN / Bloomberg)
• Trump, notorious for hating to help anyone for any reason, says he’s in no rush to help states that are short on cash. He said Democrats would have to make concessions if they want grants for state governments. “If they do it, they’re going to have to give us a lot,” Trump said in a podcast interview with conservative commentator Dan Bongino that aired Friday.
• Attorney General William Barr said it’s time “to start rolling back” in a measured way restrictions that were put in place to deal with the coronavirus crisis, a signal the Justice Department could consider legal action against officials who resist acting.Trump, meanwhile, tweeted support for protesters – some of whom were armed – in Michigan, telling Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to “make a deal” with them. Last month, Trump tweeted to “LIBERATE” Michigan.
• Mike Pence’s office threatened to retaliate against the journalist who revealed that Pence’s staff aware of the requirement to wear face masks while visiting the Mayo Clinic. Pence was the only one in the room not wearing one during his visit, despite the Minnesota clinic requiring all visitors to wear masks to prevent further spread of the coronavirus. Karen Pence claimed that Pence wasn’t aware of the rule until after the visit, but reporter Steve Herman tweeted that “All of us who traveled with [Pence] were notified by the office of @VP the day before the trip that wearing of masks was required by the @MayoClinic and to prepare accordingly.” Pence’s office contacted Herman, saying he violated the off-the-record terms that had been sent to him and other reporters before the trip and then banned him from traveling on Air Force Two unless Herman apologizes for his tweet. On Thursday, Pence wore a face mask while visiting a General Motors plant that is making ventilators.
• Publicly traded companies received more than $1 billion in funds meant for small businesses from the economic stimulus package. Nearly 300 public companies have reported receiving money from the Paycheck Protection Program

Today’s projection data:
Total projected cases in the US: 1,147,978
Total projected deaths in the US: 64,399

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,131,876
Total deaths in the US: 65,708

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Current status in the US:

USA

• Eric Trump promotes “quarantine wine” on the same day that his dad spares visas for vineyard workers
• Bay Area food banks get a coronavirus surprise: 35,000 Wagyu steaks worth $2 million
• Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear denounced a Kentuckian filing for unemployment as Tupac Shakur, suggesting it was a fake name during his daily coronavirus press conference. It was later discovered Tupac Malik Shakur, 46, lives in Lexington
• Millions of municipal workers could find themselves out of a job or without pay as cities and states face an urgent financial crisis, according to a new estimate from the National League of Cities. The reductions in staffing could affect education, sanitation, safety and health, and more
• Today we surpassed Vietnam War in American deaths.
  Vietnam war: 58,220
  Covid-19 (as of 4/29/20 @ 10:20AM EST): 59,266
  At the time of this writing, Vietnam has currently reported 270 cases of coronavirus and no deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University
• Remember when the chuds said that “OBUMMER ORDERED BODY BAGS AND FEMA!!!” Well, the federal government actually did order 100,000 new COVID-19 body bags for what officials described as preparations for a “worst possible case national scenario.” The order, costing $5.1 million, was placed April 21 by FEMA. Trump, however, said he expected that the pandemic could cost 60,000 to 70,000 lives in the U.S, we’ev now surpassed that number
• Several states warned residents who are called back to work that they may be cut off from unemployment benefits if they refuse to return because they don’t feel safe. Concern about exposure to coronavirus is typically not a sufficient enough reason to stay home and continue collecting benefits, according to a recent guidance from the US Department of Labor
• CDC data suggests that the U.S. coronavirus death toll is far higher than reported. Total deaths in seven states are nearly 50% higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11
• Meanwhile, Florida officials stopped releasing the list of coronavirus deaths being compiled by Florida’s medical examiners. Earlier this month, the medical examiners’ death count was 10% higher than the figure released by the Florida Department of Health
• Jared Kushner called the coronavirus crisis “a great success story” as the U.S. death toll crossed 60,000, with more than one million COVID-19 cases confirmed. “We’re on the other side of the medical aspect of this,” Kushner claimed in an interview with Fox News without citing evidence. “We’ve achieved all the different milestones that are needed. The federal government rose to the challenge.” Kushner also promised that that much of the country could be “back to normal” by June and for the nation to be “really rocking again” by July. [Editor’s note: Jared Kushner is a shithead.] (Daily Beast / CNN / The Hill / Business Insider)
• The Trump administration has been organizing a Manhattan Project-style effort to cut the time needed to develop a coronavirus vaccine, with a goal to have 100 million doses ready by year’s end. Called “Operation Warp Speed,” The Trump administration has been organizing a Manhattan Project-style effort to cut the time needed to develop a coronavirus vaccine, with a goal to have 100 million doses ready by year’s end. Called “Operation Warp Speed,” 99 days and 61,544 American lives later
• Trump, providing no evidence, promised that the U.S. will be able to carry out more than five million coronavirus tests per day “very soon” after a Harvard University study said the U.S. needed to be capable of carrying out at least 5 million tests a day by early June 
• Trump administration asks intelligence agencies to find out whether China, WHO hid info on coronavirus pandemic
• Comparing COVID-19 deaths to flu deaths is like comparing apples to oranges

Today’s projection data:
Total projected cases in the US: 1,080,843
Total projected deaths in the US: 58,768

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,065,245
Total deaths in the US: 61,568

Link, text, and photo credits: 1point3acres, WTF Just Happened Today, and fipilele

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• ‘No Evidence’ Yet That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says (NPR)
• Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported. Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries (Financial Times)
• U.S. intelligence agencies issued warnings about the novel coronavirus in more than a dozen classified briefings prepared for President Trump in January and February, months during which he continued to play down the threat, according to current and former U.S. officials (Washington Post)
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Monday that Democrats will push for a vote-by-mail provision in Congress’ next coronavirus relief package. Trump, however, opposes the idea and has urged Republicans to fight the effort. (NBC News)
• Tyson Foods: “The food supply chain is breaking” and “millions of pounds of meat will disappear” from the national food supply chain as the coronavirus outbreak forces the closure of some of the country’s biggest slaughterhouses, where tens of thousands of animals are processed daily. One commodity broker/livestock analyst suggested that “around May 1, shortages will begin developing at retail meat counters.” (NBC News / Washington Post / Bloomberg / The Guardian)
• The White House is finalizing expanded guidelines to allow the phased reopening of schools and camps, child-care programs, certain workplaces, houses of worship, restaurants and mass transit, according to documents under review by administration officials (Washington Post)
• Trump and retailers are expected to announce wider availability of coronavirus tests as his administration seeks to address concerns from states and business leaders that U.S. testing must be more robust for Americans to feel comfortable returning to work (Bloomberg)
• Trump thinks that the daily briefings are a “waste of time” but, presses on as advisors plead for him to stop, “Two hours of anybody every day won’t help politically” Said Chris Christie, as 56,715 Americans are dead… (NBC News / Politico / The Guardian / Axios)
• Trump tweeted, then later deleted a series of attacks against journalists who received awards for their reporting on Russia and the Mueller investigation. He called on all reporters who received “Noble Prizes” – misspelling the word “Nobel” – to return them “so that they can be given to the REAL REPORTERS & JOURNALISTS who got it right.” The Nobel Prize, however, is not awarded for works of journalism. Trump then quickly deleted the tweets and claimed he was only being sarcastic when he posted them. “Does sarcasm ever work?” he tweeted. It is the second time over the last two weeks that Trump has tried to deflect blame for his comments by claiming that he was being sarcastic (Business Insider / Washington Post / CNBC / Independent)

Today’s projections:

Total projected cases in the US: 1,031,437
Total projected deaths in the US: 56,255

Actual cases in the US: 1,011,685
Actual deaths in the US: 56,715

Link, text, and photo credits: 1point3acres, WTF Just Happened Today, and fipilele

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• 28,000 missing deaths: Tracking the true death toll of the coronavirus crisis. (New York Times)
• The Trump administration doesn’t have a plan to cover coronavirus treatment for the uninsured two weeks after pledging to have a plan. (Politico)
• The malaria drug widely touted by Trump showed no benefit – and more deaths – in a U.S. veterans study. About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too. (Associated Press)
• The World Health Organization warned that “the worst is yet ahead of us” in the coronavirus outbreak, reviving the alarm just as many countries ease restrictive measures aimed at reducing its spread. (NBC News)
• The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases recommends against using a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for the treatment of COVID-19 patients because of potential toxicities. Trump, however, has suggested the combination might be helpful. (NPR)
• Trump faces his next coronavirus test: Trump’s advisers recognize his bumpy rollout of coronavirus testing represents a major vulnerability in an election year. (Politico)
• We are living in a failed state: The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken. (The Atlantic)
• The White House and congressional leaders reached agreement on a $484 billion coronavirus relief package. (New York Times / Washington Post / NBC News / CNN / CNBC / Wall Street Journal / Politico)
• Trump declared – via tweet – that he will sign an executive order suspending most immigration to the U.S. because of the coronavirus pandemic, (New York Times / Politico / Bloomberg / Washington Post / NBC News / Associated Press / Reuters / CNN / CBS News)
• The director of the CDC warned that a second wave of the coronavirus will likely be worse because it will probably coincide with the start of flu season.(Washington Post)
• The World Health Organization warned that we must “ready ourselves for a new way of living for the foreseeable future” as many countries lift lockdowns and other social distancing measures. (ABC News)
• Attorney General William Barr said the Justice Department will consider taking legal action against governors who continue to impose strict social distancing rules after coronavirus cases begin to subside.(Bloomberg / NPR / The Guardian)
• Several Southern states took steps to reopen businesses despite health officials warning that reopening too early without expansive testing could lead to a surge in new infections. South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee all moved to relax social distancing and stay-at-home orders. (Wall Street Journal)

Today’s projections:

Total projected cases in the US: 837,512
Total projected deaths in the US: 45,653

Actual cases in the US: 827,093
Actual deaths in the US: 45,425

Link and photo credits: 1point3acres, WTF Just Happened Today, and fipilele

• President Trump wanted to sign each of the $1,200 stimulus checks issued to Americans. Since that is not “allowable” under present IRS rules, his name will appear in the “Memo” section of each check. This will delay delivery of the checks by several days.
• During today’s daily coronavirus task force briefing, Trump interrupted the briefing to present a heavily edited campaign-style highlight reel of video clips and soundbites praising himself and the steps his administration has taken to combat the virus over the last four months
• The spread of the coronavirus through the food and grocery industry is expected to cause disruptions in production and distribution of certain products
• Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts

Today’s projection: 610,643 total cases, 25,324 total deaths
Today’s actual: 613,886 total cases, 26,047 total deaths