Day 167 : Each Day A Grotesque Milestone


  • Trump used the Fourth of July weekend to sow division during a global pandemic that has killed over 130,000 Americans, shirked his responsibility to contain the coronavirus, and promoted an updated version of his “American carnage” vision for the country. In a pair of remarks – at Mount Rushmore on Friday and from the White House on Saturday – Trump depicted the recent protests against racism and police brutality as an “angry mob” looking to “unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities” by “tear[ing] down our statues” in order to “erase our history” and “end America.” Trump, making no mention of the victims of police violence, warned of a “growing danger” to the values of the nation through a “merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values, and indoctrinate our children.” “Make no mistake,” Trump told several thousand people mostly without masks, “this left-wing cultural revolution is designed to overthrow the American Revolution.” Trump also claimed that media outlets “slander” him and “falsely and consistently label their opponents as racists.” Trump provided no evidence to support any of his claims. (New York Times / Washington Post / Associated Press / NPR / CNN / ABC News / Los Angeles Times / New York Times / Axios / Associated Press)
  • Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that the country was still “knee-deep in the first wave” of the pandemic, saying that the more than 50,000 new cases a day recorded several times in the past week were “a serious situation that we have to address immediately.” The nation’s top infectious disease expert noted that Europe managed to drive infections down, but the U.S. “never came down to baseline and now are surging back up.” Over the first five days of July, the United States reported its three largest daily case totals with 14 states recording single-day highs as the death toll from the pandemic passed 130,000. Fauci added: “the current state is really not good.” (New York Times / Washington Post / Wall Street Journal / ABC News)
  • The seven-day average for new coronavirus cases in the U.S. hit a record high for the 28th day in a row. 13 states reported new highs in their seven-day case averages. Montana, Delaware, and Alaska saw their biggest percentage changes from their previous records. West Virginia also set a record number of daily cases. South Carolina, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and California all reported record numbers of hospitalizations from the virus. (Washington Post / Texas Tribune)
  • 239 scientists from 32 countries warned that airborne transmission is a significant factor in the coronavirus pandemic. In an open letter to the World Health Organization, the group of scientists outlined the evidence that the virus can spread indoors through aerosols that linger in the air and can be infectious in smaller quantities than previously thought. The WHO, however, has maintained that the coronavirus is spread primarily by large respiratory droplets that fall quickly to the floor. (New York Times / Washington Post / CNBC)
  • The White House’s new message to Americans is that they need to learn to “live with the virus being a threat.” Trump campaign officials and advisers have suggested that the goal is to convince Americans to accept the escalating death toll and tens of thousands of new cases a day while pushing for schools to reopen and professional sports to return. For nearly six months the administration have offered a series of predictions, from Trump promising that “the problem goes away in April” to predicting “packed churches all over our country” on Easter Sunday to Pence’s claim that “by Memorial Day weekend we will have this coronavirus epidemic behind us” to Jared Kushner’s promise that the country would be “really rocking again” by July, all while highlighting a potential vaccine and an economic recovery. Among the pronouncements that never came to fruition was the White House’s initial message in January that the virus wasn’t a threat at all.[Editor’s note: Let’s not forget Trump’s suggestion that the lungs could be cleaned of coronavirus with disinfectants.] (Washington Post / NBC News)
  • Trump falsely claimed that 99% of coronavirus cases are “totally harmless.” Trump made the false claim during his Independence Day speech in South Dakota. The number appears to be based on the estimated death rate, which excludes the thousands people who have spent weeks in the hospital or at home with mild to moderate symptoms that still caused debilitating health problems. The 1% death rate also narrowly focuses on the number of people who die compared to the total number of people who were infected, including those who are asymptomatic and don’t experience any illness, and those with mild cases who experience fleeting symptoms. Meanwhile, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, who isn’t an epidemiologist, backed up Trump’s false claim, saying “the risks are extremely low, and the president’s right with that and the facts and statistics back us up there.” He provided no evidence to support the false claim. (The Guardian / New York Times / NBC News / Politico / Axios)
  • Trump Jr. and a Covid-19 positive Kimberly Guilfoyle were spotted maskless last Saturday at a Hamptons party with 100 other guests. (PageSix)

Link credits: WTF Happened Today, Fipilele, and more…

Day 158: Lower Your Expectations


  • The White House coronavirus task force held its first briefing in two months, as Pence took a victory lap, saying “We slowed the spread, we flattened the curve, we saved lives.” While Pence acknowledged that cases have been rising “precipitously” in some states, he argued that Americans are seeing “encouraging news” despite cases surging because all 50 states – he claimed – “are opening up safely and responsibly.” Pence insisted “this moment is different” than two months ago, suggesting “We’re in a much better place” because “the volume of new cases coming in is a reflection of a great success in expanding testing across the country.” Pence also defended Trump’s decision to resume holding campaign rallies, claiming “The freedom of speech, the right to peaceably assemble, is enshrined in the constitution of the United States […] Even in a health crisis, the American people don’t forfeit our constitutional rights.” He added: “And we have an election coming up this fall.” (NPR / CNBC / Politico / Washington Post / New York Times / CNN / The Hill)
  • Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that the coronavirus outbreaks largely in the South and West could spread across the U.S. The nation’s top infectious diseases expert pleaded for Americans to practice social distancing and mask wearing, saying “You have an individual responsibility to yourself but you have a societal responsibility.” The Trump administration is also weighing testing groups of people together. “Pool testing” could help officials test more people with fewer resources. (New York Times / Washington Post)
  • The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to invalidate the Affordable Care Act as the U.S. has recorded more than 125,000 deaths from COVID-19, with nearly 2.6 million confirmed cases. In an 82-page brief submitted an hour before the midnight deadline, the Trump administration said that “the entire ACA must fall,” arguing that the individual mandate was rendered unconstitutional after Congress ended the financial penalty for not having health insurance in 2017. If the court agrees, more than 23 million Americans would lose health care coverage. (NBC News / New York Times / Washington Post / Wall Street Journal / CNN / NPR / Politico)
  • Trump canceled his planned trip to his private golf club in Bedminster, N.J. The White House claimed the cancellation “had nothing to do” with a state order mandating a 14-day quarantine for visitors who have been in states with increasing numbers of coronavirus cases. The weather forecast, however, showed that thundershowers are expected throughout the area this weekend. Hours later Trump tweeted that he canceled the trip to stay in Washington “to make sure LAW & ORDER is enforced.” (CNBC / Politico)
  • The European Union will block most travelers from the United States, Russia, and other countries considered too risky because they have not controlled the coronavirus outbreak. The U.S. banned most European Union travelers in March, but has not eased its restrictions, even though European infections and deaths have dropped. The ban goes into effect on July 1. (New York Times)

Link credits: WTF Happened Today, Fipilele, and more…

Sorry for taking so long to write an update. The past few weeks have been consumed with work, projects, and regular life. Stay home, stay safe, and don’t believe that it’s over until we have a vaccine, or a treatment that is effective, ubiquitous, and affordable.


Day 132: Dispatches From A Presidential Bunker


  • On Friday, Trump took shelter inside an underground bunker for nearly an hour as protests continued outside the White House and across Washington, D.C. Trump was abruptly taken by Secret Service agents inside the Presidential Emergency Operations Center, an underground bunker that is used to shelter presidents during threatening situations, like terrorist attacks. Trump and his family have reportedly been “shaken” by the experience and the size of the protests. (Associated Press / New York Times / CBS News)
  • After a weekend out of sight, Trump emerged from the White House bunker and called America’s governors “weak” and demanded that they “dominate” the protesters, which he labeled “terrorists.” Trump asked “Why aren’t you prosecuting them?” while demanding “retribution.” He warned governors that they’d look like “a bunch of jerks” if they didn’t send the protesters to “jail for long periods of time.” Otherwise, Trump added, “you’re wasting your time.” Trump, who has not formally addressed the nation since the protests began, continued: “you have to use the military […] we have a wonderful military,” adding that they would look like “fools” if they didn’t take control of the situation. Trump also accused Minnesota of becoming “a laughingstock all over the world.” (New York Times / Washington Post / CNN / Wall Street Journal / CBS News)
  • Trump tweeted that the U.S. would designate a group of anti-fascism activists as a terror organization, despite lacking the legal authority. Trump, his top officials, Attorney General William Barr, and national security adviser Robert O’Brien have all blamed antifa for the violent protests across the country. Antifa, however, is not an organization and does not have a leader, membership roles or any defined, centralized structure. Further, if antifa were a real organization, current law only permits the State Department to designate foreign organizations as terrorist groups. The U.S. does not have domestic terrorism statute. (Politico / New York Times / CNN)
  • Florida’s seen a “statistically significant” uptick in the number of pneumonia and influenza deaths. The CDC said it’s likely COVID-19. (Daily Beast)
  • Public health and government officials warned that the ongoing protests against police brutality could lead to a new wave of coronavirus infections. The new cases could add to the already disproportionate burden the disease has had on African-American and Latino populations. (Washington Post / Wall Street Journal)
  • Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything. 40% of deaths from COVID-19 are related to cardiovascular complications, and the disease starts to look like a vascular infection instead of a purely respiratory one. (Elemental)
  • White nationalist group posing as antifa called for violence on Twitter. Other misinformation and misleading claims spread across Twitter on Sunday night and into Monday related to the protests. (ABC News)
  • Barack Obama finally speaks up (Medium)
  • Asshole canceled again… and again… and again…. (The Verge)

Required Viewing:

Day 131 – The American Fall

Police nationwide responded to protests against police violence by deliberately targeting demonstrators, journalists, and bystanders with pepper spray, tear gas, rubber bullets, and excessive use of force. The ongoing protests following the killing of George Floyd by a white police officer – who knelt on Floyd’s neck for more than eight minutes – have taken place in at least 75 cities, including at the gates of the White House, in the days since Floyd’s death in Minneapolis. The officer, Derek Chauvin, has since been fired, arrested, and charged with third-degree murder and manslaughter. Since then, police have tear-gassed protesters, drove vehicles through crowds, opened fire with rounds of rubber bullets and pepper balls on journalists and bystanderspushed over an elderly man with a cane who was walking away, shot a woman in the face with a rubber bullet as she left a grocery store, and shot a photojournalist in the eye with a rubber bullet, who is now permanently blind. Curfews have been enacted in more than two dozen cities, and about 5,000 National Guard troops have been activated in 15 states and the District of Columbia. Organizers have tried to keep the protests focused on police accountability and social justice through chanting and marching, but agitators, posing as peaceful protesters, have exploited the situation by looting stores, setting fire to buildings and police cars, and throwing firecrackers, bottles, bleach, and, reportedly, a molotov cocktail at police. Some advisers, meanwhile, have urged Trump to formally address the nation and call for calm, while others have said he should condemn only the looting or risk losing middle-of-the-road voters in November. The White House, however, declared a lid, which means no one should expect to see or hear from Trump for the rest of the day. (Slate / Nick Waters / Vox / Washington Post / New York Times / Washington Post / CNN / The Week)

Trump reacted to the protests and incidents of vandalism by threatening demonstrators with “vicious dogs” and “ominous weapons.” He previously suggested that looters in Minneapolis would be shot, referred to protesters as “thugs,” and prepared the Pentagon to use military force against American citizens. In a series of Saturday tweets, Trump accused demonstrators who gathered at the White House of being “professionally managed so-called ‘protesters’” and suggested that his supporters should confront them, saying: “Tonight, I understand, is MAGA NIGHT AT THE WHITE HOUSE???” When asked if he was stoking racial divisions by calling for a counter-protest, Trump replied: “No, not at all. MAGA is make America great again. These are people that love our country. I have no idea if they’re going to be here. I was just asking. … By the way, they love African-American people. They love black people. MAGA loves the black people.” (NBC News / Politico / Bloomberg / New York Times ABC News / CBS News / Washington Post)

As the president fans the flames, at least 105,000 people have died and over 40 million Americans have no sustainable means by which to support themselves.

Link credits: WTF happened today

Day 129 – Thank Me Indeed…

Link to race chart

Day 121: Because He’s An A**hole

We are no longer posting our “actuals” vs “projected” data. The actual case data is out pacing our prediction math. Until we can rewrite our calculations, this has become an exercise in “truth being stranger (or, more horrifying) than fiction.”

Chart – Where we are with testing:

Day 106: Now What?


“Some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice I am willing to make”

Lord Farquaad

  • What now?
  • Trump said his administration will urge the Supreme Court to overturn Obamacare, maintaining its all-out legal assault on the health care law amid a pandemic that will drive millions of more Americans to depend on its coverage
  • Scientists identified a new strain of the coronavirus that appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated to the East Coast of the U.S., and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March. The new strain may also make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease
  • Yesterday, Mike Pence said the White House is in “preliminary discussions” to wind down the coronavirus task force, because “of the tremendous progress we’ve made as a country
  • Yet today, Trump contradicted his plan to shut down the coronavirus task force, vowing that the group would “continue on indefinitely” because of “how popular the task force is.
  • Jared Kushner’s coronavirus team relied on inexperienced volunteers from consulting and private equity firms with little expertise in the jobs they were assigned
  • Trump promised to resume the White House coronavirus briefings, saying “everybody” enjoyed them — including himself. Trump, who ended the daily briefings last week, said “we’ll probably do maybe one a week, sometimes two depending on the news” as he pivots to reopening the economy. Trump added that he enjoys sparring with reporters, but “I was told that some people didn’t like the combative attitude so much.” Trump then congratulated himself, saying: “We set every record with those press conferences. Six million people all the time. You know we had tremendous numbers, literally […] I heard, is this true? It was the highest-rated hour in cable television history. That’s what I heard. I don’t know if that’s true”
  • Trump said “it’s possible there will be some” deaths as states roll back restrictions aimed at stopping the spread of the coronavirus, acknowledging that it was the choice the country faces to reopen and “jumpstart” the economy. When asked what he would say to Americans who have lost a loved one to the coronavirus, Trump replied: “I love you”
  • Experts warn that Trump’s push to reopen the country risks a “death sentence” for many Americans. Trump has praised governors of states that have started to loosen restrictions on social distancing and business activity, even though he admitted that people will suffer as a result. “Will some people be affected badly? Yes,” Trump said on Tuesday. “But we have to get our country open, and we have to get it open soon.”
  • On the same day Trump praised himself for solving “every problem” and taking care of “all of the things,” members of his own administration privately warned that states were still experiencing shortages of masks, gowns, and other medical gear. A May 1 recording of an interagency conference call between FEMA and HHS officials began with the director of the CDC’s influenza division saying: “The numbers of deaths definitely will be high.” Other officials discussed their ongoing struggle to keep up with requests from governors for more medical equipment and PPE. Meanwhile, Trump was telling the public that the federal government had “loaded up hospitals with things to take care of people” and “We’ve ensured a ventilator for every patient who needs one. The testing and the masks and all of the things, we’ve solved every problem. We solved it quickly
  • The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “We don’t know” where the coronavirus began, but “the weight of evidence is that it was natural and not man-made” and “that it was probably not intentional[ly]” released from a Chinese lab. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, however, insisted that “there is significant evidence that this came from the laboratory,” but conceded that “We don’t have certainty […] We’re all trying to figure out the right answer.” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. intelligence community, and the “Five Eyes” international intelligence alliance have all said that the coronavirus “was not manmade or genetically modified,” suggesting that it “evolved in nature,” and likely originated in a Chinese wet market as a result of “natural human and animal interaction”

Today’s projection data:
Total projected cases in the US: 1,263,455
Total projected deaths in the US: 71,920

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,263,183
Total deaths in the US: 74,807

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Day 105: “I’m Sad… For Now”


Case data from today and yesterday are kind of broken, this count isn’t accurate, in fact all the reporting sites have incomplete data for the past couple of days.

It is probably time I level with all of you about what I think will happen. After 4 months of studying data, reading countless papers, books, and watching this migrate in our global culture, a few things have occurred to me. Those of you who know me, know that I do tend to go fast and deep on these things, I certainly have here.

Even though I post articles to the news section of my own site, I do not often read Coronavirus-related news articles. I never watch the president’s coronavirus briefings, or dwell on what his experts are communicating. I have found that whatever Trump and his “task force” have said, assume the opposite is true. This has proven to be a nearly infallible way of dealing with the president and his “task force.” They are spreading dangerous disinformation and hopefully they will all stand trial for malfeasance, or incompetence, or both. In fact, I’ve all but given up hope that any meaningful leadership will take place in its present, or future form. It will likely come from a place we cannot yet imagine.

I believe, without hesitation, that we are facing another 18-24 months of lock down, social distancing, infection, and death. In the last 250 years, the last 10 influenza pandemics, there has been a second and third wave. Each more deadly than the last. It is not reasonable to expect anything different with Covid-19. Surely, we do not actually know what will happen, this is a coronavirus, not a flu virus. But, does behave very much like a flu it is not unreasonable to make prediction as such. We are making the same mistakes that those before us made and they too felt that restrictions, masks, and social distancing was wrong. The sooner we accept that, the easier this will be to comprehend and make allowances and adjustments for.

There is no vaccine coming soon. Not in July, not in September, at best we may hope to expect a risky, rushed, and certainly not ubiquitously effective vaccine in 18-24 months. We have not developed a safe and effective vaccination from discovery to distribution sooner than 4 years. It’s not unreasonable to believe that one will not happen in a matter of weeks. If we are very lucky, we might see one a few months sooner, from what I’ve gathered August 2021 is a best-case-scenario at this point.

I see that states are reopening. People are tired of being restricted, tired of navigating the world fearfully, tired of uncertainty. I can help put some of that uncertainty to rest. Nearly all, at least 80% of us reading this, will get the virus in the next 18-24 months. Of that, 80% of those will recover leaving 20% to struggle, 10% of those will be fine and recover with minor medical intervention. The remaining 10% will need hospitalization, of those 5% will need intensive care and of those, 1% to 0.5% will die. Pick your population, either 325 million in the US, or 7.7 billion in the world and the formula looks like this: (population) / 2 x .01(and .005 respectively) = total deaths. So, in the US, that is a range of 830,000 to 1,675,000 total deaths. We’ll use 50% here, which is far more conservative

Yes, I said 800,000 to 1.6 million people dead in the US.

It is time, beyond time, for each of us to have a personal plan in which to carry us through this situation. The federal government may be able to assist you, in a minor way, but they will not protect you and they do not have the remotest semblance of a plan. The states are competing with one another for resources and contradicting one another based on party lines, they do not have a plan. The president is encouraging unrest, taking personal advantage for himself, and misleading the world on an hourly basis, he has no plan. Your local government is unlikely to have a plan. So the plan, it’s creation, it’s execution, and it’s modification on-the-fly falls upon each of us, for each of us to own the outcome.

My current plan is to continue to work from home, as I am fortunate to do, to do as much good work in order to distinguish myself as I possibly can, and to keep my family as far away from other people for as long as they will tolerate. I am not willing, unlike our leadership, to sacrifice anyone in my family to get back to Applebee’s for the 2 for $20 and happy hour mixed drinks. The question is, are you? I suspect not.

I want to be perfectly clear on a couple of points:

1). There is nothing we can do, this is inevitable. I’m not advocating tossing the masks and french kissing strangers. I’m saying there is nothing that any of us can do to stop this from happening.

2). There must be a time to return to abnormal life. That will happen soon. Go out, get take out, get groceries, and be aware of people and protect yourself. 50/50 you’ll be fine.

3). Nothing will return to normal. It will seem normal for a moment, but we will be clobbered again near the end of summer beginning of fall. This is far from over. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

4). If the vaccine comes, it will happen as we hit herd immunity and the virus begins to remove itself, it will appear as though the vaccination cured us all. If we get one… Like I said, 18-24 months and 800k – 1.6m dead later.

5). Maybe I’m wrong…. let’s hope that I am. What could be better for me to be dead wrong about this? I can think of no better outcome in the world.

Today’s projection data:
*Total projected cases in the US: 1,200,645
*Total projected deaths in the US: 65,169

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,237,633
Total deaths in the US: 69,921

*Historical data from yesterday is incomplete and the calculations are not accurate for 5/5/20.

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Day 104: “It’s A Dem Panic”


Today’s projection data:
Total projected cases in the US: 1,218,138
Total projected deaths in the US: 68,377

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,212,900
Total deaths in the US: 69,921

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Day 101: Pulling Into May


  • White House blocks Fauci from testifying at House coronavirus hearing. A White House spokesman said it would be “counter-productive” for the health official to testify, adding that the Trump administration would work with Congress on testimony at a later date. 
  • There may be good evidence to suggest that the quadrivalent seasonal flu shot does not raise the risk of contracting Covid-19, or warrant a worsened outcome if one does contract the disease.
  • The Ars Technica COVID-19 vaccine primer: 100-plus in the works, 8 in clinical trials. They have at least 102 vaccine candidates in development worldwide. Eight of those have already entered early clinical trials in people. At least two have protected a small number of monkeys from infection with the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes COVID-19.
  • At least 30 states have started allowing some businesses to operate or announced plans to do so in May. The reopening of America, however, is happening with little consensus on how it should proceed with state and local officials and, in some cases, business owners drawing their own conclusions about how to balance medical and economic risks.
  • The coronavirus pandemic is likely to last at least another 18 months and won’t be controlled until about two-thirds of the world’s population is immune, said a report by a team of longstanding pandemic experts. They recommended that the U.S. prepare for a worst-case scenario, including a second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. In the best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted. (CNN / Bloomberg)
  • Trump, notorious for hating to help anyone for any reason, says he’s in no rush to help states that are short on cash. He said Democrats would have to make concessions if they want grants for state governments. “If they do it, they’re going to have to give us a lot,” Trump said in a podcast interview with conservative commentator Dan Bongino that aired Friday.
  • Attorney General William Barr said it’s time “to start rolling back” in a measured way restrictions that were put in place to deal with the coronavirus crisis, a signal the Justice Department could consider legal action against officials who resist acting.Trump, meanwhile, tweeted support for protesters – some of whom were armed – in Michigan, telling Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to “make a deal” with them. Last month, Trump tweeted to “LIBERATE” Michigan.
  • Mike Pence’s office threatened to retaliate against the journalist who revealed that Pence’s staff aware of the requirement to wear face masks while visiting the Mayo Clinic. Pence was the only one in the room not wearing one during his visit, despite the Minnesota clinic requiring all visitors to wear masks to prevent further spread of the coronavirus. Karen Pence claimed that Pence wasn’t aware of the rule until after the visit, but reporter Steve Herman tweeted that “All of us who traveled with [Pence] were notified by the office of @VP the day before the trip that wearing of masks was required by the @MayoClinic and to prepare accordingly.” Pence’s office contacted Herman, saying he violated the off-the-record terms that had been sent to him and other reporters before the trip and then banned him from traveling on Air Force Two unless Herman apologizes for his tweet. On Thursday, Pence wore a face mask while visiting a General Motors plant that is making ventilators.
  • Publicly traded companies received more than $1 billion in funds meant for small businesses from the economic stimulus package. Nearly 300 public companies have reported receiving money from the Paycheck Protection Program

Today’s projection data:
Total projected cases in the US: 1,147,978
Total projected deaths in the US: 64,399

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,131,876
Total deaths in the US: 65,708

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Day 99 : A Great Success Story

Current status in the US:


  • Eric Trump promotes “quarantine wine” on the same day that his dad spares visas for vineyard workers
  • Bay Area food banks get a coronavirus surprise: 35,000 Wagyu steaks worth $2 million
  • Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear denounced a Kentuckian filing for unemployment as Tupac Shakur, suggesting it was a fake name during his daily coronavirus press conference. It was later discovered Tupac Malik Shakur, 46, lives in Lexington
  • Millions of municipal workers could find themselves out of a job or without pay as cities and states face an urgent financial crisis, according to a new estimate from the National League of Cities. The reductions in staffing could affect education, sanitation, safety and health, and more
  • Today we surpassed Vietnam War in American deaths.
    Vietnam war: 58,220
    Covid-19 (as of 4/29/20 @ 10:20AM EST): 59,266
    At the time of this writing, Vietnam has currently reported 270 cases of coronavirus and no deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University
  • Remember when the chuds said that “OBUMMER ORDERED BODY BAGS AND FEMA!!!” Well, the federal government actually did order 100,000 new COVID-19 body bags for what officials described as preparations for a “worst possible case national scenario.” The order, costing $5.1 million, was placed April 21 by FEMA. Trump, however, said he expected that the pandemic could cost 60,000 to 70,000 lives in the U.S, we’ev now surpassed that number
  • Several states warned residents who are called back to work that they may be cut off from unemployment benefits if they refuse to return because they don’t feel safe. Concern about exposure to coronavirus is typically not a sufficient enough reason to stay home and continue collecting benefits, according to a recent guidance from the US Department of Labor
  • CDC data suggests that the U.S. coronavirus death toll is far higher than reported. Total deaths in seven states are nearly 50% higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11
  • Meanwhile, Florida officials stopped releasing the list of coronavirus deaths being compiled by Florida’s medical examiners. Earlier this month, the medical examiners’ death count was 10% higher than the figure released by the Florida Department of Health
  • Jared Kushner called the coronavirus crisis “a great success story” as the U.S. death toll crossed 60,000, with more than one million COVID-19 cases confirmed. “We’re on the other side of the medical aspect of this,” Kushner claimed in an interview with Fox News without citing evidence. “We’ve achieved all the different milestones that are needed. The federal government rose to the challenge.” Kushner also promised that that much of the country could be “back to normal” by June and for the nation to be “really rocking again” by July. [Editor’s note: Jared Kushner is a shithead.] (Daily Beast / CNN / The Hill / Business Insider)
  • The Trump administration has been organizing a Manhattan Project-style effort to cut the time needed to develop a coronavirus vaccine, with a goal to have 100 million doses ready by year’s end. Called “Operation Warp Speed,” The Trump administration has been organizing a Manhattan Project-style effort to cut the time needed to develop a coronavirus vaccine, with a goal to have 100 million doses ready by year’s end. Called “Operation Warp Speed,” 99 days and 61,544 American lives later
  • Trump, providing no evidence, promised that the U.S. will be able to carry out more than five million coronavirus tests per day “very soon” after a Harvard University study said the U.S. needed to be capable of carrying out at least 5 million tests a day by early June 
  • Trump administration asks intelligence agencies to find out whether China, WHO hid info on coronavirus pandemic
  • Comparing COVID-19 deaths to flu deaths is like comparing apples to oranges

Today’s projection data:
Total projected cases in the US: 1,080,843
Total projected deaths in the US: 58,768

Today’s actual data:
Total cases in the US: 1,065,245
Total deaths in the US: 61,568

Link, text, and photo credits: 1point3acres, WTF Just Happened Today, and fipilele

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Day 97 : Not My Fault, Again

  • ‘No Evidence’ Yet That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says (NPR)
  • Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported. Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries (Financial Times)
  • U.S. intelligence agencies issued warnings about the novel coronavirus in more than a dozen classified briefings prepared for President Trump in January and February, months during which he continued to play down the threat, according to current and former U.S. officials (Washington Post)
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Monday that Democrats will push for a vote-by-mail provision in Congress’ next coronavirus relief package. Trump, however, opposes the idea and has urged Republicans to fight the effort. (NBC News)
  • Tyson Foods: “The food supply chain is breaking” and “millions of pounds of meat will disappear” from the national food supply chain as the coronavirus outbreak forces the closure of some of the country’s biggest slaughterhouses, where tens of thousands of animals are processed daily. One commodity broker/livestock analyst suggested that “around May 1, shortages will begin developing at retail meat counters.” (NBC News / Washington Post / Bloomberg / The Guardian)
  • The White House is finalizing expanded guidelines to allow the phased reopening of schools and camps, child-care programs, certain workplaces, houses of worship, restaurants and mass transit, according to documents under review by administration officials (Washington Post)
  • Trump and retailers are expected to announce wider availability of coronavirus tests as his administration seeks to address concerns from states and business leaders that U.S. testing must be more robust for Americans to feel comfortable returning to work (Bloomberg)
  • Trump thinks that the daily briefings are a “waste of time” but, presses on as advisors plead for him to stop, “Two hours of anybody every day won’t help politically” Said Chris Christie, as 56,715 Americans are dead… (NBC News / Politico / The Guardian / Axios)
  • Trump tweeted, then later deleted a series of attacks against journalists who received awards for their reporting on Russia and the Mueller investigation. He called on all reporters who received “Noble Prizes” – misspelling the word “Nobel” – to return them “so that they can be given to the REAL REPORTERS & JOURNALISTS who got it right.” The Nobel Prize, however, is not awarded for works of journalism. Trump then quickly deleted the tweets and claimed he was only being sarcastic when he posted them. “Does sarcasm ever work?” he tweeted. It is the second time over the last two weeks that Trump has tried to deflect blame for his comments by claiming that he was being sarcastic (Business Insider / Washington Post / CNBC / Independent)

Today’s projections:

Total projected cases in the US: 1,031,437
Total projected deaths in the US: 56,255

Actual cases in the US: 1,011,685
Actual deaths in the US: 56,715

Link, text, and photo credits: 1point3acres, WTF Just Happened Today, and fipilele

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Day 91: It’s Time To Reopen Dummy

  • 28,000 missing deaths: Tracking the true death toll of the coronavirus crisis. (New York Times)
  • The Trump administration doesn’t have a plan to cover coronavirus treatment for the uninsured two weeks after pledging to have a plan. (Politico)
  • The malaria drug widely touted by Trump showed no benefit – and more deaths – in a U.S. veterans study. About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too. (Associated Press)
  • The World Health Organization warned that “the worst is yet ahead of us” in the coronavirus outbreak, reviving the alarm just as many countries ease restrictive measures aimed at reducing its spread. (NBC News)
  • The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases recommends against using a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for the treatment of COVID-19 patients because of potential toxicities. Trump, however, has suggested the combination might be helpful. (NPR)
  • Trump faces his next coronavirus test: Trump’s advisers recognize his bumpy rollout of coronavirus testing represents a major vulnerability in an election year. (Politico)
  • We are living in a failed state: The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken. (The Atlantic)
  • The White House and congressional leaders reached agreement on a $484 billion coronavirus relief package. (New York Times / Washington Post / NBC News / CNN / CNBC / Wall Street Journal / Politico)
  • Trump declared – via tweet – that he will sign an executive order suspending most immigration to the U.S. because of the coronavirus pandemic, (New York Times / Politico / Bloomberg / Washington Post / NBC News / Associated Press / Reuters / CNN / CBS News)
  • The director of the CDC warned that a second wave of the coronavirus will likely be worse because it will probably coincide with the start of flu season.(Washington Post)
  • The World Health Organization warned that we must “ready ourselves for a new way of living for the foreseeable future” as many countries lift lockdowns and other social distancing measures. (ABC News)
  • Attorney General William Barr said the Justice Department will consider taking legal action against governors who continue to impose strict social distancing rules after coronavirus cases begin to subside.(Bloomberg / NPR / The Guardian)
  • Several Southern states took steps to reopen businesses despite health officials warning that reopening too early without expansive testing could lead to a surge in new infections. South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee all moved to relax social distancing and stay-at-home orders. (Wall Street Journal)

Today’s projections:

Total projected cases in the US: 837,512
Total projected deaths in the US: 45,653

Actual cases in the US: 827,093
Actual deaths in the US: 45,425

Link and photo credits: 1point3acres, WTF Just Happened Today, and fipilele

Day 86 – “You’re Going To Be Calling The Shots.”

Today’s projections: 671,699 total cases and 34,794 total deaths
Actual numbers: 677,824 total cases and 34,846 total deaths

Day 85: Muh Freedumz!

Today’s projections for the United States:
Projected: 643,723 total infected – 28,474 total deaths
Actual: 645,064 total infected – 28,585 total deaths

Photo credit: Eva Worthing…

Day 84 – “Everything we did was right”

Today’s projection: 610,643 total cases, 25,324 total deaths
Today’s actual: 613,886 total cases, 26,047 total deaths

Updates – April 13, 2020

Today, we launched the Projection Data page. After trying several times to build a model that do some predictive analysis, we came into a method that is simple, straightforward and seems to work. Today the model projected 589,436 total cases and 25,497 total deaths in the United States. The actual numbers according to 1point3acres which we consider to be a gold source of data, was 588,421 total confirmed cases and 25,680.

The model goes on to project a mid May peak and afterward, the numbers fall dramatically and far less accurately.

In other, even more grim and terrifying news:

  • In January, Trump was warned about the Coronavirus in which he was told that it could cost up to 500,000 American lives and cost trillions of dollars in economic damage. He denied, downplayed, and ignored that messaging
  • Dr. Fauci confirmed the report that Trump rejected and belittled publicly, concerning social distancing guidelines laid out by several public health officials. Had they been enacted sooner, untold thousands more lives would have been saved.
  • Trump retweeted a post calling for Dr Fauci’s dismissal, a claim the white house denies, despite the tweets existence:
  • Trump declared he has the power to overrule governors and “open up” states and relax social distancing practices to combat the coronavirus

Categorized as News

News Briefs – 4/12/20

Site Update – April 11, 2020

Here are some of the changes we’ve made in the past few days:

  • Improved the Maps page
  • Added a Flourish wheel chart listing many details
  • Update the chart listing the actions taken in each state
  • Updated the Raw Data page to include links to data in .csv (comma separated value) form for your own research purposes. Added data from Johns Hopkins updated daily

Lastly, as a reminder, we’re all going to have to start dressing like this soon. Please make a note of it:

Site Updates April 7, 2020

Today we’ve made several updates to the site

  • Added two new maps. The old map was good, but provided very little detail that wasn’t available elsewhere in the site.
  • Added Impact By Country section which has several selectable positions
  • Simplified the charts on the front page and added a US chart.
  • Added a US counties growth chart using the new data provided by the New York Times.

We usually make very small changes to the various sections that are reporting data. There’s still much work to do.


  • Working on a “Resources List”
  • Adding user configurable charts, maps, and views
  • Adding predictive analysis. As the data grows, it becomes more compelling to try and make predictions

Thanks for staying with us, watching with us, and please keep as safe as you can. It’s likely that the coming weeks are critical in the US as the virus begins to spread.

New Table – What Has Each State Done?

We’ve searched several data sources around the world and compiled a listing of each state, what action they have taken, and when they first took any form of action.

Most states have closed schools and many have enacted various states of restrictions. Unless states have enacted legislature to enforce closures or restrictions, they are listed as “No” in the table below.

An overwhelming amount of US states, at this time, have only made recommendations and have not enacted compulsory restrictions on gathering, travel, or closed schools.

A small amount of states have taken strong action, based on legislature, and with enforcement measures:

Image Source:

Airlines Grab Bailout Cash, Immediately Lay Off Workers

Airlines warn government aid ‘not a cure’ for coronavirus travel plunge

“American Airlines Group Inc. — which is not shown in the chart but is included in overall figures — led the pack, with negative cumulative free cash flow during the decade while it repurchased more than $12.5 billion of its shares. United Airlines Holdings Inc. used 80% of its free cash flow on buybacks.”

a screenshot of a cell phone: Buyback Bonanza

The airline industry is expected to get $50 billion in cash and loans; Boeing alone, which asked for $60 billion, is widely expected to receive some part of a $17 billion fund. 

Thanks fipilele

Categorized as News

News Briefs

News Briefs are nearly daily summaries of the news of that day, if significant, and time permitting.

Incremental Improvements

Since we’ve come back online, after a brief outage yesterday, we’ve made several improvements and changed several things about the way we represent the data:

  • We’ve further hardened our security and added a privacy policy.
  • We’ve pulled some of the data sources and are now mostly focused on the Johns Hopkins data
  • We’ve added new dashboard on the “Raw Data” page
  • We’ve formatted the data in a more compact manner and refined it to make it easier to view on a phone

There’s still quite a lot to do:

  • Create a GDPR policy page, do we need that?
  • Find a way to publish the massive amount of information that we’re collecting everyday at this google sheet
  • Find the best possible and fastest loading visualization tools

If you have any suggestions, please let us know

Back Online

Fought all day with denial of service attacks, brute force login attempts, and just about every kind of other attack, including compromising some of the data sources (which we’ve changed).

I didn’t realize how valuable information about the virus would be to some people

Note: McAfee may show the site as “Harmful” or “Dangerous,” but it is not. Google disagrees and McAfee became a dubious source of information and security years ago. Regardless, I’ve requested removal from their list. Naturally, I can shorten the 3-5 day time period by paying them.

Stay safe…


Statement: So for now, as of about 01:00AM EST, one of the data providers that we use was compromised (hacked). We’re pulling down the site until we can secure a new data source. We’d rather that we don’t have a site for the moment, than we would put any viewers at risk. This is a very, very contentious and visible topic, the website grew so fast that it was the top result for quite a few searches about the outbreak. The site is completely removed from the web at the moment and will be back today in a new form.

Categorized as Site News

Site Updates 3/23/20

We’ve done a few things to make improvements such as refined the data that shows on the front page and added some new pages.

  • We updated the data sources so that the page loads a little faster
  • We removed some of the charts that were only tracking the first 20 days of the outbreak
  • We added an X-Y line chart that displays confirmed, recovered, and mortal cases
  • We added pagination to some of the tables on the front page to let you sort through the data more easily. Look for the “>” symbols.
  • We added search functions to some of the tables on the front page
  • We enable social sharing and added a Contact page.
  • We added a Raw Data page that includes a simple table that allows you to sort and search the data. We will update this multiple times daily as well.

Thanks for staying with us. We’re rethinking how we show this information constantly and we are listening to you suggestions.

Refinements and Improvements

So for the moment, we’ve refined what data we do have. Hopefully, we are presenting it as it is, rather than presenting a conclusion and representing the data in order to support that conclusion.

The site will go through several iterations until we reach the best data sources and can display that data in an empirical and easy to understand manner.

Thank you for so many visits on our first 24 hours.

Along with providing site updates, we’ll use this space for news that is relevant, interesting, and timely going forward.


Welcome to

We are concerned, trying to find as much information as possible, and needed to build a single dashboard that would give high-level, as well as detailed information at a glance.

For now, we’re going with data provided by Johns Hopkins University and visualized utilizing the datawrapper data visualization tools.

This is an evolving project. Please stay tuned and “pardon our dust.”